Services PMI® at 55.2%; January 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 60.4%; New Orders Index at 60.4%; Employment Index at 50%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 50%

This report reflects the recently completed annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.

TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 3, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector grew in January after contracting in December following 30 consecutive months of growth, with the Services PMI^® registering 55.2 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In January, the Services PMI^® registered 55.2 percent, 6 percentage points higher than December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 49.2 percent. The composite index grew in January after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020, when it registered 45.4 percent (seasonally adjusted). The Business Activity Index registered 60.4 percent, a 6.9-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted reading of 53.5 percent in December. The New Orders Index grew in January after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 60.4 percent is 15.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 45.2 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries registered 50 percent in January, indicating unchanged performance. The index registered 1.5 percentage points higher than the 48.5 percent reported in December. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index was down 0.3 percentage point in January, to 67.8 percent. The Inventories Index contracted for the eighth consecutive month; the reading of 49.2 percent is up 4.1 percentage points from December’s figure of 45.1 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (55.8 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from December’s reading of 55.9 percent) expanded for the second consecutive month after four straight months in contraction.

“Ten industries reported growth in January, according to the Services PMI^®, which was in expansion territory after a single month of contraction and the prior 30-month period of growth. The composite index has indicated expansion for all but three of the previous 155 months.”

Nieves continues, “Business Survey Committee respondents indicated that capacity and logistics performance continue to improve. Although responses varied by industry and company, the majority of panelists indicated that business is trending in a positive direction. Employment was unchanged for the month. Some companies still find it difficult to fill open positions, while others are facilitating staff reductions.” 

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 10 services industries reporting growth in January — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The eight industries reporting a decrease in the month of January — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Construction; Information; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Raw material availability and lead times have improved but still pose a challenge. In our outlook, we are positive about growth. Consumer confidence is returning, and people are more willing to spend money on luxury items.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Generally, business is strong. Limitations in such areas as labor and packaging keep sales from exceeding expectations.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “New residential housing market is still reeling from mortgage rate increases. Sales have fallen off dramatically at entry-level price points, as costs are trending flat.” [Construction]
• “Demand for services remains high, yet we continue to satisfy demand despite continuing supply chain disruptions. There is improvement in some categories, like blood collection supplies, that have been constrained for more than a year. Others are moderately improving but not to a level where consistency is maintained. Labor is also moderately improving, (helping reduce) staff burnout and fatigue. Forecast for 2023 is currently optimistic.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “While there is still uncertainty in the marketplace, there is a general feeling that supply chain (issues) are relaxing. There is no unrealistic expectation that challenging times are behind us, but we are cautiously optimistic about 2023.” [Information]
• “Orders are strong, but it’s difficult to support customers’ expectations on delivery due to challenges in the supply chain.” [Other Services]
• “Modest increase in sales activity following the holiday slowdown. Still seeing warning signs of a national/international recession. Higher interest rates having an impact. Outlook for the first quarter of 2023 is still projected lower than the same period in 2022.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “We’re still experiencing delivery delays, but fewer than the past two years. Hopefully, lead times will return close to pre-COVID-19 levels.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
• “Coming off of peak season. Supply chains are solidifying, and capacities are better than in the past.” [Retail Trade]
• “Continued concerns regarding supply continuity. Energy supply costs are very high this winter season.” [Utilities]
• “The slowdown in new housing starts has made business slightly slower than previous years. We are also seeing a slowdown in e-commerce traffic and sales.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Beef; Carbonated Beverages; Chemicals (2); Eggs; Electrical Components (24); Electronic Components; Food and Beverages (2); Freesheet Paper; Janitorial Supplies; Labor (26); Labor — Contract; Natural Gas; Pallets; and Soy Products.

Commodities Down in Price
Diesel; Fuel (6); Gasoline (6); Lumber (2); Steel; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances (2); Brass Fittings (2); Circuit Breakers; Electrical Equipment; Electronics; Labor (3); Needles and Syringes; Paper Products; Plastics; Semiconductors; Transformers (5); and Vehicles (7).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JANUARY 2023 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In January, the Services PMI^® registered 55.2 percent, a 6-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted December reading of 49.2 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing after one month of contraction. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for January (55.2 percent) corresponds to a 1.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 60.4 percent in January, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted reading of 53.5 percent in December, indicating growth for the 32nd consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “New calendar year, new projects, and people returning from vacation” and “Projects running over and year-end projects starting.”

The 12 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of January — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Public Administration; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The four industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of January are: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Retail Trade; and Information.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, up 15.2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 45.2 percent. New orders grew after contracting in December for the first time after 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: “Increased production due to new customers” and “January is typically higher for us than December, as it’s the start of a new year versus a holiday month.”

Eleven industries reported growth of new orders in January, in the following order: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Other Services; Educational Services; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting a decrease in new orders in January are: Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Mining; and Wholesale Trade.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector was unchanged in January after contracting in December. ISM^®‘s Employment Index registered 50 percent, up 0.6 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 49.4 percent. Comments from respondents include: “Unable to hire qualified labor — supply is thin” and “We continue to let people go, not replacing any open positions.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in employment in January — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; and Public Administration. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in January — listed in order — are: Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from the 48.5 percent recorded in December. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. This month’s reading indicates supplier deliveries is unchanged from December. Comments from respondents include: “Post-holiday freight has proven to be more efficient” and “Shortened lead times and increased fill rates.”

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in January — listed in order — are: Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Educational Services. The nine industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of January — listed in order — are: Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted in January for the eighth consecutive month after four straight months of growth preceded by an eight-month period of contraction. The reading of 49.2 percent was a 4.1-percentage point increase from the 45.1 percent reported in December. Of the total respondents in January, 40 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Holiday sales drove down inventories, as expected” and “Inventory reduction plan implemented.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in January — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in January — listed in order — are: Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in January for the 68th consecutive month, with the index registering 67.8 percent, 0.3 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 68.1 percent recorded in December. The Prices Index continues to indicate movement toward equilibrium, with a seventh consecutive reading near or below 70 percent, following nine straight months of readings above 80 percent.

Fifteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of January, in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Educational Services; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Finance & Insurance; and Wholesale Trade. The only industry reporting a decrease in prices for January is Construction.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in January for the 25th consecutive month. The index registered 52.9 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the December reading of 51.5 percent. Of the total respondents in January, 39 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Components are still slow to get to suppliers” and “Manufacturers still not meeting lead time targets in a lot of cases.”

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in January — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in January are: Mining; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Construction.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in January after three months of contraction preceded by an eight-month period of growth. The New Export Orders Index registered 59 percent, a 11.3-percentage point increase from the 47.7 percent reported in December. Of the total respondents in January, 73 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in January — listed in order — are: Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in January are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Educational Services; and Wholesale Trade.

Imports
The Imports Index grew for the fifth consecutive month in January after three months of contraction, registering 53 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from December’s reading of 52.7 percent. Sixty-five percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The four industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of January are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries that reported a decrease in imports in January are: Mining; Wholesale Trade; and Educational Services. Eleven industries reported no change in imports in January.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew in January for the second consecutive month, following four months of contraction. The index registered 55.8 percent, a 0.1-percentage point decrease from December’s figure of 55.9 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The nine industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in January — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Information; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in January are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; and Public Administration.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of January 2023.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2021 GDP (released December 22, 2022), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring February 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, March 3, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management